U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus

Ukraine has been on a shopping spree lately. On November 17, Kiev announced plans to purchase up to 100 French-made Rafale fighter jets over the next ten years. Just a few weeks ago, the Ukrainian government unveiled a similar deal to purchase up to 150 Swedish Gripen aircraft. These statements were not random: Ukraine was recently keen to convince European Union countries that it would make good use of the reserves of the Russian Central Bank if the bloc was finally able to seize these assets and transfer them to Kiev’s coffers.

However, the US-Russian plan to end the war has other ideas for the future of these assets, which total about $300 billion, most of which are held in European Union-based institutions. A provision in the 28-point road map suggests that the reserves would serve as a signing bonus for the United States, which may help explain US President Donald Trump’s keen interest in concluding the deal quickly. While the terms of the US-Russian plan are troubling, they also represent an opportunity for the Europeans to potentially derail this plan: If the EU seizes the assets of the Russian Central Bank before Washington, the bloc may be able to significantly curb Trump’s interest in what is seen as a bad and dangerous deal for both Ukraine and Europe.

Ukraine has been on a shopping spree lately. On November 17, Kyiv Announce It plans to purchase up to 100 French-made Rafale fighter jets over the next ten years. Just a few weeks ago, the Ukrainian government did just that It has been detected A similar deal to buy up to 150 Swedish Gripen aircraft. These statements were not random: Ukraine was recently keen to prove to the European Union countries that it would benefit from Russia’s presence well. Freezes central bank reserves if the EU finally manages to seize these assets and transfer them to Kiev’s coffers.

However, the US-Russian plan to end the war has other ideas for the future of these assets, which total about $300 billion, most of which are held in European Union-based institutions. Clause in 28-point road map It suggests the reserves would serve as a signing bonus for the US, which may help explain US President Donald Trump’s keen interest in closing the deal quickly. While the terms of the US-Russian plan are troubling, they also represent an opportunity for the Europeans to potentially derail this plan: If the EU seizes the assets of the Russian Central Bank before Washington, the bloc may be able to significantly curb Trump’s interest in what is seen as a bad and dangerous deal for both Ukraine and Europe.

Recently, how they will continue to finance the war that begins next spring has been keeping Ukrainian policymakers up at night. Ukraine’s budget numbers for the next two years are not right. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Ukraine faces a budget gap of 65 billion dollars In the period 2026-2027 – excluding military equipment and ammunition – and no source of funding has been confirmed. Once military expenditures are taken into account, the funding gap could be even greater $155 billion During the next two years. With the United States Out of the equation And Ukrainian Local revenues Unable to cover war-fueled expenses, Europe is in the driver’s seat to help Ukraine close its budget gap.

Many observers believe that after years of debate, the European Council meeting last month will reach an agreement to seize the assets of the Russian Central Bank. the Parameters of such a scheme It was broadly agreed as follows: Financial institutions holding the reserves of the Russian Central Bank would transfer the assets to the European Commission, which would then issue a $161 billion reparations loan to Ukraine. However, the loan is not a loan but an advance: Kiev will repay the debt only if Moscow agrees to war reparations. France and Germany They recently dropped their veto of the plan, paving the way for the assets to be seized in time to finance Kiev starting next year.

Belgium Derailed October meeting by asking all EU member states to guarantee the loan. Brussels’ fears are not unfounded: this is confirmed by Belgium-based Euroclear 86 percent Of Russian state assets are owned by the European Union, meaning Belgium could be liable if Russia succeeds in suing to recover its money. In November, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pressured Belgium by giving member states a chance warning: They can support Ukraine either by seizing Russian assets or by taking on new debt. This was a smart move. Von der Leyen knows full well that EU capitals will resist adding new debt to their national balance sheets, making Russian assets the only viable option for financing Ukraine.

Fast forward to last week, when Trump’s plan reshuffled the cards. the deal The agreement stipulates that American companies will obtain $100 billion in frozen Russian assets to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, with the American government receiving 50% of the project’s profits. This condition will not come as a surprise to observers Recent US trade deals With Asian countries. As part of the July agreement with Washington, Tokyo committed to spending $550 billion of Japanese taxpayer money on US soil by January 2029. Likewise, South Korea will invest $350 billion.

The US proposal includes Russia Two more Financial items in favor of Washington. First, the remaining frozen funds, amounting to about $200 billion, will be used in a US-Russian investment vehicle. Thus, the United States will receive a $300 billion signing bonus if the plan is implemented. Second, European taxpayers are covering another $100 billion in rebuilding costs for Ukraine.

These financial items indicate raging battles across the Atlantic over the fate of Russian reserves. US carry only 1.5 percent– Nearly $5 billion – of these assets, while the European Union countries combined own approximately that Three quarters. This means that the proposed scheme effectively allows the United States to seize EU claims to assets. Some experts hope this makes the plan work DebatableBut they may be overly optimistic. It is not difficult to imagine how Washington could put pressure on the European Union (see: 1). Tariff threats) and Euroclear (possibly using blackmail to access US dollars) to release the funds. there precedents For such pressure. In 2012, the Belgium-based financial network SWIFT had no choice but to cut ties with Iranian banks amid intense pressure from Washington.

From Ukraine’s perspective, the financial terms of the US-Russian plan, like the rest of the plan, are disastrous. A US seizure of frozen Russian assets would cut off Kiev’s only reliable financial lifeline: the EU reparations loan secured by these assets. If the US-Russian plan fails to bring about peace, which is quite possible given its danger Weak to nonexistent With security guarantees, it will be difficult for Kyiv to finance military spending. And in a final twist of fate, Ukraine did just that Negotiations have just begun To obtain a new loan from the International Monetary Fund – a crucial step for international donor intervention. However, the United States is the IMF’s largest contributor, making a new loan unlikely without Trump’s support. Furthermore, the Fund can only lend to countries that have a reasonable chance of repaying their debts to the IMF. Without the EU loan, it is Not clear How can Kyiv meet this standard?

The fate of the US-Russian plan depends on the European Union’s ability to quickly seize frozen Russian assets. If Belgium drops its opposition to expropriation and the EU quickly issues the reparations loan — that is, within days, not weeks — the bloc could render one of the key provisions of Trump’s plan moot, which could make the entire agreement much less attractive to him.

The question is no longer whether the assets of the Russian Central Bank will be seized, but rather who will seize them. The Europeans have a choice: They can either support Ukraine and use their best influence to influence the US-Russian plan, or they can allow Washington to confiscate funds for the benefit of the United States and Russia. Ironically, Washington was, until last week, an enthusiastic supporter of the European Union’s seizure of Russian assets. And now Trump wants them for America first.