Ukraine Faces ‘Very Tough Choice’ on Trump-Backed Russia Peace Deal

Ukraine faces a difficult decision in the coming days, as the Trump administration pressures the country to adopt a 28-point peace plan that would see it make major concessions to Russia — including giving up control of territory not currently occupied by Russian forces.

“Currently, Ukraine is under some of the most severe pressure to date,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday in a speech to his country. He said: “Right now, Ukraine may find itself facing a very difficult choice. Either lose our dignity or risk losing a key partner. Either get a difficult 28 points, or a very harsh winter – the hardest of all – and the risks that follow.”

Ukraine faces a difficult decision in the coming days, as the Trump administration pressures the country to adopt a 28-point peace plan that would see it make major concessions to Russia — including giving up control of territory not currently occupied by Russian forces.

“Currently, Ukraine is under some of the most severe pressure to date,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday in a speech to his country. He said: “Right now, Ukraine may find itself facing a very difficult choice. Either lose our dignity or risk losing a key partner. Either get a difficult 28 points, or a very harsh winter – the hardest of all – and the risks that follow.”

The Trump administration has reportedly warned that Ukraine could lose US intelligence and military assistance if Zelensky does not accept the peace proposal, which would likely worsen Ukraine’s situation on the battlefield. President Donald Trump has said he wants Kiev to approve the deal by Thanksgiving Day, giving Ukraine little time to negotiate.

However, it remains unclear how flexible the United States, Ukraine, Russia, and the European Union will be, especially amid apparent contradictions within American diplomatic efforts.

Trump administration The 28-point peace proposal would give Russia much of what it sought, including limiting Ukraine’s military size, political concessions by Ukraine, and “de facto” US recognition of Russian control over Crimea and Donbass — the eastern Ukrainian region made up of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions — including territories still under Ukrainian control.

The plan, which was floated in late October by US envoy Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev, a Russian envoy and head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, was first reported by Axios earlier this week.

A second, separate document reportedly says the United States will offer Ukraine a security guarantee along the lines of Article 5 of NATO’s collective defense mechanism. If Russia attacks Ukraine, the United States will be obligated to respond, including potentially using “armed force.”

Ukraine and its European allies are likely to find it difficult to agree to the peace proposal. Kiev accepting its terms would weaken Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against further Russian aggression, as well as hand over populated cities. European Union members show firm support for Ukraine, as the EU’s chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, said on Thursday that “pressure must be on the aggressor.”

Moscow has more reasons to favor the document, with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday Saying That it could be “the basis for a final peace settlement.” However, with Russia having suffered more than a million casualties in the war, offering any security guarantees to Ukraine may be unacceptable in the eyes of the Kremlin.

The role of the US congress in the deal is also unclear. Although the plan states that it will be “legally binding,” it is not clear whether this means that any final agreement will be a ratified treaty.

If an agreement is reached and Trump merely offers to sign it or issue an executive order that could easily be reversed by a future US president, any security guarantees offered to Ukraine will carry no weight. Putin has a history of violating previous agreements with Ukraine, so Kiev will likely want security guarantees from Washington on a stricter legal basis.

The plan emerged To the surprise of both Ukraine and its European allies, it led to a diplomatic tussle that prompted Zelensky to hold talks with senior officials on both sides of the Atlantic in recent days. Kallas said on Thursday that Europe had not been informed of these efforts. The White House also did not inform key US lawmakers.

But despite warning that the peace plan was gaining acceptance in some European capitals, Zelensky said he would continue to “work quietly” with the United States on the plan.

Senior US military officials, including US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, were in Kiev this week as part of the Trump administration’s efforts to revive the peace process, which has largely stalled since the August Trump-Putin summit in Alaska.

A European diplomat familiar with the meeting said Driscoll spoke with a group of European ambassadors in Kiev on Friday, sending a message that “things will only get worse in the long term” for Ukraine. The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the record.

Driscoll, along with US Vice President J.D. Vance, met with Zelensky on Friday. “We agreed to work with the United States and Europe at the level of national security advisors to make the path to peace truly possible,” Zelensky said in a post on X after their meeting. He continued: “Ukraine has always respected and continues to respect US President Donald Trump’s desire to put an end to the bloodshed, and we view every realistic proposal positively. We have agreed to maintain constant communication, and our teams are ready to work 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.”

The Trump administration’s pressures come at a difficult moment for Zelensky at the domestic political level and in terms of developments on the battlefield. Zelensky is dealing with a corruption scandal while Russia is simultaneously on the verge of seizing the city of Pokrovsk — which, if captured, would represent the most significant victory for Russian forces since the capture of Avdiivka in early 2024.

The pressure Zelensky faces on multiple fronts appears to be a large part of the reason the Trump administration chose this moment to abandon the new plan and launch a sweeping press approach, believing the Ukrainian leader would have no choice but to embrace what is being offered.

The stated threat to cut off US support appears to be another means used by the Trump administration to push Zelensky. A second European official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press, said that if the United States withdraws its intelligence support from Ukraine, it will have “repercussions on the battlefield.”

However, US military support Because Ukraine can no longer be the game-changer it was in 2022, when US shipments of Javelin anti-tank missiles and other weapons helped Kiev repel the Russian attack. Europe has intensified arms production for Ukraine since the beginning of the war, with the total value of European weapons sent to Ukraine exceeding the value of American weapons sent, according to the Kiel Institute, a research center based in Germany. Ukraine’s production also accelerated. As of early 2024, the country has assembled more than 90% of its drones domestically.

Cutting off contact with US intelligence could be more dangerous. Ukraine lost ground when a similar intelligence shutdown occurred in March. However, since then, European countries have intensified their efforts to access key intelligence sources, such as satellites, that the United States previously provided to Ukraine.

Ukraine also recently announced plans to import American natural gas to cover the cold winter months, and relies on purchasing American air defense missiles to protect the energy infrastructure and Ukrainian cities.

On the other hand, if Zelensky refuses to bow to US pressure, he could see a rise in public approval similar to the Ukrainian community’s reaction to February’s charged Oval Office meeting between Zelensky and Trump.

Trump, who has been impatient for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia since returning to Washington for a second term, has fluctuated in his approach to the process in the time since the February meeting, and at various points appeared to lose his patience with Moscow as Russia continues to pummel Ukraine with airstrikes and press for more territory.

On the contrary, since the positive meeting in Rome in April and the subsequent meeting at the NATO summit in The Hague in June, Trump’s relationship with Zelensky has appeared to be improving. At the UN General Assembly in late September, Zelensky noted that Trump had undergone a “major transformation” and no longer trusted Putin. But the 28-point peace plan and its favorable terms for Russia point to the myriad ways in which Trump’s approach to diplomacy remains volatile and difficult to predict.