UN warns about AI becoming another ‘Great Divergence’ of rich and poor like Industrial Revolution

A new report from the United Nations Development Program suggests that most of the gains from artificial intelligence are likely to come from rich countries unless steps are taken to use its power to help close gaps in access to basic needs, as well as advanced knowledge.

The report released on Tuesday likens the situation to the “Great Variation” of the Industrial Revolution, when many Western countries experienced rapid modernization while others fell behind.

Questions about how companies and other organizations will use artificial intelligence are an almost universal concern given its potential to change or replace some of the jobs people do using computers and robots.

But while much of the attention devoted to AI focuses on productivity, competitiveness, and growth, a more important question is what it will mean for human lives, the authors point out.

“We tend to overemphasize the role of technology,” Michael Muthukrishna of the London School of Economics, lead author of the report, told reporters. “We need to make sure it’s not about technology first, it’s about people first,” he said, speaking via video at the report’s launch in Bangkok.

The risk of exclusion is a problem for communities where most people still struggle to access skills, electricity and internet connectivity, for the elderly and those displaced by war, civil conflict and climate disasters. At the same time, these people may be “invisible” in the data that would not take them into account, the report said.

“As a general-purpose technology, AI can raise productivity, spark new industries, and help laggards catch up,” the report says.

Better farming advice, X-ray analysis within seconds, faster medical diagnosis, and more effective weather forecasts and damage assessments all hold promise for rural communities and areas vulnerable to natural disasters.

“AI systems that analyze poverty, health and disaster risks enable faster, fairer and more transparent decision-making, turning data into continuous learning and public value,” she says.

However, even in wealthy countries like the United States, the possibility that data centers will consume too large a share of electricity and water has raised concerns. Ramping up power generation to meet growing demand may hinder progress in reducing carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels that contribute to global warming, while also causing health risks.

This technology raises ethical, privacy and cybersecurity concerns: Researchers have discovered that hackers are using artificial intelligence to automate parts of cyberattacks. There is also the problem of deepfakes that can mislead or facilitate criminal activity.

The report notes that Asian countries, including China, Japan, South Korea and Singapore, are well-placed to benefit from AI tools, while countries such as Afghanistan, the Maldives and Myanmar lack the skills, reliable power and other resources needed to leverage the computing potential of AI. Inequality between regions within countries means that some places, even in advanced economies, risk being left behind.

The report says that about a quarter of the Asia-Pacific region lacks access to the Internet.

If these gaps are not closed, many millions could be left out of the types of devices, digital payment systems, digital identities, education and skills needed to fully participate in the global economy, leaving them further behind, said Philippe Schellekens, UNDP Chief Economist for Asia and the Pacific.

Other risks include false and misleading information, surveillance that violates privacy rights, and systems that can act as “black boxes,” reinforcing bias against minorities or other groups. He added that transparency and effective regulation are critical guardrails to ensure that AI is used in fair and accountable ways.

“We think we need more balance, less hysteria and noise,” Schillikins said.

The report says that artificial intelligence has become as essential to modern life, as electricity, roads, and now the Internet, so governments need to invest more in digital infrastructure, education, training, fair competition, and social protection.

“The goal is to democratize access to AI so that every country and community can benefit while protecting those most at risk from disruption,” the report says.