Venezuela crisis unlikely to impact India’s oil math

Officials and analysts believe that India is likely to remain insulated from the ongoing crisis in Venezuela, confirming that there are no concerns in terms of energy security as India’s exposure to Venezuela is very low and it has minimal oil exports from there.

Sources indicated that India’s financial accounts are unlikely to be affected by the US strike on Venezuela and the arrest of the Latin American country’s president, Nicolas Maduro. “The situation is being monitored, but at the moment it seems that India will not face any repercussions from it on the crude oil front,” a source said.

India is the third largest importer and consumer of crude oil in the world and remains sensitive to any major changes in crude oil prices, which could have a direct impact on the fiscal and current account deficit as well as inflation.

Between April and November 2025, India imported 178.1 million tons of crude oil and Russia remained the main supplier, supplying 60 million tons. The United States supplied India with 13 million tons. India also imported crude oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria and Kuwait in this period.

A recent analysis by the Global Trade Research Institute (GTRI) indicated that Venezuela holds about 18% of the world’s oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (about 16%), Russia (about 5-6%), or the United States (about 4%). Venezuela alone has larger crude oil reserves than the United States and Russia combined.

“For India, the Venezuelan disruption is unlikely to have any material impact on the economy or energy,” said the analysis by GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava. In FY25, India’s total imports from Venezuela were just $364.5 million, of which $255.3 million were crude oil, down 81.3% from $1.4 billion crude oil imports in FY24. India’s exports to Venezuela were modest at $95.3 million, led by pharmaceuticals worth $41.4 million.

“Although India was a major buyer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s, and Indian companies such as ONGC Videsh have upstream stakes in the Orinoco Belt, bilateral engagement has weakened sharply since 2019 due to US sanctions, which forced India to cut oil imports and scale back trading activity to avoid secondary sanctions. As a result, India’s trade with Venezuela is now small and declining.”

Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, also noted that things should and will return to normal within a day or two in the markets. “Venezuela is not really an important oil supplier and is very low in demand. It is less than 1% as of FY25. However, the price paid is one of the lowest and in FY25 it was $496 per tonne against an average of $586 per tonne,” he said on the impact of the crisis on India, adding that imports became less important after that.

“Besides, if the story develops as the US said, there could be an increase, albeit marginal, in global supplies and prices should fall rather than rise. Moreover, India buys at different prices from different countries, and the total cost should not be different from what it is today. The reaction is knee-jerk and should be corrected in a few sessions,” he explained in a report on Monday.

However, Amer Makda, commodity and currency analyst at Choice Broking, warned that escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela have imposed a significant “geopolitical risk premium” on energy markets. “While the immediate impact on global oil supplies is limited, the change in control of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves poses critical implications for heavy crude oil prices and the long-term supply outlook,” he said.