Trump now owns Venezuela

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As military operations continued, the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro by the United States was smooth. But Donald Trump’s story in Venezuela is just beginning. Having ousted its leader, Trump is now eagerly bearing the consequences. “We will run the country until such time as we can make a safe, sound and wise transition,” he said a few hours later. In other words, Trump turned to regime change. What happens in Venezuela from now on will be at his expense.

Trump has been talking about Maduro’s arrest for months. The shock lies in his willingness to “run” a sovereign state with a population of about 30 million people. The last time the United States tried to do this was after the invasion of Iraq in 2003. It turned into a Vietnam-style quagmire. Trump has had much success since then when he promised never to repeat George W. Bush’s wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Until now, he has stuck to this line, which is very popular among most Americans, and not just among his MAGA electoral base.

But as Trump’s second term progressed, he began to gain a penchant for more empire-style operations. The early Saturday morning raid on Caracas came nearly a week after US airstrikes in northwestern Nigeria in Operation Christmas, which Trump said was to protect Christians in the country. This also came in the wake of the United States’ bombing of underground Iranian nuclear sites last summer. Trump threatened again this week to strike Iran to save protesters against its regime. “We are primed and ready to go,” Trump wrote at 2:58 a.m. Friday.

But regime change constitutes a departure. As is the case in Iraq, Trump’s reasons for controlling Venezuela are multiple and variable. Regarding Iraq, Bush spoke in various ways about seizing Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, his alleged links to Al Qaeda, spreading democracy in the Middle East, and striking the axis of evil. Regarding Venezuela, Trump talked about the war on drug terrorism, combating gang warfare on the streets of America, and restoring what he described as American territory and oil. Venezuela nationalized its foreign oil operations earlier this century. To these reasons can be added the hostility that his Foreign Minister, Marco Rubio, has toward the communist regime in Cuba. Cuba gets much of its oil from Venezuela and has thousands of paramilitary “advisers” stationed there. Venezuela has the largest reserves in the world, with more than 300 billion barrels. For the Cuban regime, this may be an existential moment.

Two jump questions. The first is whether Trump’s appetite for military adventures will continue to spread. Designs have been announced in Canada, Panama, Greenland and the Gaza Strip. On Saturday, he hinted that Mexico was also in his sights. “She is a good woman,” Trump said of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. “But the cartels run Mexico. They don’t run Mexico… Something has to be done with Mexico.” Mexico, not Venezuela, supplies America with almost all of the fentanyl. Trump on Saturday also warned Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s leftist president, to “watch his ass.” Colombia, not Venezuela, supplies America with most of its cocaine.

The second question is how Trump plans to govern Venezuela. If he is serious about running the country, having American troops on the ground will be necessary. Even if Trump thinks he can run the place by remote control, reality will intervene. The country is full of weapons, militias and supporters of “Chavismo,” the thuggish brand of Venezuelan socialism named after Maduro’s predecessor. If Russia, China, or any other adversary wants to drag Trump into his own quagmire, he has a chance.

At his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Saturday, Trump showed no concern about the size and complexity of the task he had set for himself. He continued to insist that the priority would be to restore Venezuela’s infrastructure so that it could start pumping oil at full capacity. The expanded flow of oil revenues will be used to compensate US oil companies and fund Venezuela’s reconstruction. Trump did not specify how American oil companies could achieve this without extensive American military protection.

Either way, leaders in the Western Hemisphere and beyond will sleep less easily from now on. Trump is increasingly comfortable with the enormous firepower at his disposal. The consequences of his disregard for international constitutional law and the United States will take time to emerge. So does the precise nature of how he plans to run Venezuela.

Whichever way this might work out, Trump’s new world order is now very much a reality. It has no clear rules, doesn’t respect allies, celebrates the jungle, and is always about money. There is a lot of wealth under Venezuelan soil. Trump is now committed to extracting it.

edward.luce@ft.com