(Bloomberg) – The European Central Bank is likely to stare in the economic danger posed by US President Donald Trump’s tariff by choosing to leave a possible reduction in borrowing costs for another day.
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In their final decision before a seven -week summer vacation, the policymakers may maintain the interest rate without changing 2 %, which leads to a response to Trump’s threatened tariffs by 30 % until they are achieved and their effect can be better evaluated.
With many officials who are likely to use the separator to spend a long vacation, the temptation to reformulate that inflation is in the target, and postponing anxiety about economic expectations until the new quarterly expectations are collected at the September 10-11 meeting, it may seem appropriate.
What political makers know, however, is that the troubles lie. Regardless of the concerns related to definitions, the euro strengthens, which created expectations for prices and threatening to pressure exporters. Meanwhile, another political crisis in France may be brewing over its enlarged public funds.
Looking at that background, the European Central Bank’s board of directors can recognize that the opportunity to reduce another price in September grows, even if their approach is adhered to “at the meeting” which is well -aimed in making decisions.
In this context, President Christine Lagarde is likely to return in its opening statement to reporters on Thursday, to risk growth “tilted to the negative side”, economists in Morgan Stanley wrote in a preview entitled “ready for the beach.”
What Bloomberg Economic says:
“We expect the language of the ruling council after the July 24 meeting be similar to formulation in June, which leaves the possibility of additional discounts without adhering to it.”
David Powell, an economist in the euro area. For full analysis, click here
Economic reports next week will reach its deliberations. It includes surveying banks of the European Central Bank, due on Tuesday, consumer confidence on Wednesday, and the indexes of purchase from all over the region and other major economies, which were issued on Thursday, hours before the results of the European Central Bank’s deliberations.
Other major indicators such as work confidence in Germany, which were closely seen and the Italian economic feeling will be followed on Friday.
European Union envoys are scheduled to meet early this week to formulate a plan for measures to respond to a possible scenario without an interface with Trump, whose negotiator is seen in the tariff tariff before the deadline on August 1.
The overwhelming preference is to maintain negotiations with Washington on the right track in an attempt to obtain a negotiating result before the deadline next month. However, efforts did not result in continuous progress after talks in Washington last week, according to people familiar with the matter. The negotiations will continue during the next two weeks.
Elsewhere, inflation numbers from Japan to Brazil and testimony by the head of the UK Central Bank are among the things that hide them for investors.
Click here for what happened last week, and below is our cover for what will happen in the global economy.
United States and Canada
Evaluating American economic data is relatively light and highlighted by a pair of housing market reports. On Wednesday, the June data from the National Association of Real Estate Judass is expected to appear a third month of small change in the previously owned homes. Contract closing operations were hovering near an annual average of 4 million, slightly higher than last year, which was the weakest since 2010.
Meanwhile, economists expect a government report on Thursday that new home sales have been regained slightly in June after publishing the largest monthly decline since 2022. The contract signatures soon on new homes have quickly turned largely to a better part than two years.
The housing market has struggled to get traction as high -level interest rates and the ability to withstand costs keep many potential buyers.
Other reports include Friday’s release on strong goods orders in June, pre -manufacturing and services polls in July from the S& GLOBAL on Thursday.
Federal Reserve Policy Manufacturers in a period of blackout before their meeting on July 29-30, although President Jerome Powell on Tuesday offers welcoming notes at a conference focusing on capital frameworks for large banks.
Meanwhile, the markets will focus on any other moves in the Trump campaign, which is uncompromising to pressure the federal reserve in cut rates.
To the north, business polls and consumers at Canada Bank for the second quarter will provide a new look at inflation and investment plans.
The retail data for May and the flash estimation for the month of June will appear declining sales as consumers decline after a tariff for the purchase of cars earlier in the year. Two Malitan screens from the federal government may have more details about the revenue of the retaliatory tariff that has been collected so far.
Asia
Asia’s spreadsheet offers a wide section of economic signals, from trade in South Korea to inflation indicators in Japan, Singapore and New Zealand. The numbers will help clarify how the region’s economies respond to trade -related doubts.
South Korea will open on Monday with commercial data for 20 days, which is an early indication of July exports. After that, consumer confidence is followed on Wednesday and retail sales during the week, as he presented a reading of home conditions after Korea Basrakrar retained fixed prices this month.
Also on Monday, China will make major loans, which are expected to remain fixed for the second month in July, with a signal from the Popular Bank of China.
Australia takes the spotlight on Tuesday with minutes of the Reserve Bank policy meeting in July, as it shocked investors by maintaining prices by 3.85 %.
The minutes may provide a clearer feeling how close to the policy makers resume their mitigation cycle. Rba Michel Bullock Governor delivers a speech on Thursday.
On Tuesday, Taiwan is scheduled to publish export orders for the month of June, along with employment data.
In July, the project managers index in July, on Thursday, will refer to the flexibility of both manufacturing and services activity. Japan is closed on Friday with a full list of data, including CPI in Tokyo, store sales and factory activity. Inflation reading will provide early directives on national prices, while other versions will help assess the extent of local demand and production.
New Zealand reports in the second quarter on Monday, while Singapore is publishing price measures on Wednesday and industrial production data on Friday. Thailand has car sales and customs trade numbers during the week.
Meanwhile, investors will monitor the repercussions of the Japan elections, which will witness, according to the exit polls, that the ruling coalition is losing its majority in the Senate, a result that would weaken the leadership of the besieged Prime Minister Shigro Ishiba and may disturb its markets.
Europe, the Middle East and Africa
The UK will issue public financing data on Tuesday at a time when its economic problems and financial position in focus.
With unemployment increased at its highest level for four years and growth, the numbers of purchasing managers may attract Thursday on Friday.
Britain’s exposure to market pressure may be the subject when the Governor of Bank of England Andrew Billy and his colleagues witness the financial stability of the legislators on Tuesday. Their report on the matter earlier this month highlighted how UK’s ties are at risk by a wave of forced sale through high -benefit hedge funds.
Consumer price numbers are among the most prominent events elsewhere. Data will appear on Wednesday from South Africa to accelerate inflation to 3.1 % in June from 2.8 %, due to the high prices of meat. The equivalent numbers are published in Iceland the next day.
Regardless of the European Central Bank, other price decisions are scheduled in the wider region:
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Nigerian politicians may leave their main rate unchanged 27.5 % in a third consecutive meeting on Tuesday, where inflation is still 22.2 % high and the growth of basic prices and food.
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The central bank in Hungary is expected to continue to suspend borrowing costs for a period of 10 months in a row on the same day, despite the slow economy, after accelerating inflation in June.
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The Ukrainian Central Bank is scheduled to decide the policy two days later. Kiev officials have retained the main rate at 15.5 % since March increased.
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Turkish policy makers are expected to resume borrowing costs on Thursday, after reflecting the path in the face of political turmoil in March. The main central bank is expected to reduce 43.5 % from 46 %.
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The Bank of Russia indicated that it is possible that it will reduce borrowing costs when the policy makers meet on Friday, perhaps with more than 100 basis points announced in June, which raised the main rate to 20 % of the record by 21 %.
latin america
Argentina in Monday publications may be permissible for GDP data. Economic activity jumped in April by 1.9 % of March and 7.7 % in the previous year, as President Javier Millie cleared some currency controls, which is part of an agreement worth $ 20 billion with the International Monetary Fund.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg last month served on an annual basis for the production of Argentina in the second and third quarter, to 8 % and 4.2 %, respectively.
Mexico, Economy No. 2 in Latin America, occupies the lead in the middle of the week, providing economic activity data in addition to the consumer price report in the middle of the month.
May GDP-PROXY print comes on Tuesday following the best readings expected in April, and after the economy flirted with the artistic recession earlier in the year.
The spread of the opposite wind-not the least of which is tariffs and trade in the United States-has many analysts who predict a stagnation in the second shallow quarter.
After a series of uncomfortable warm inflation readings, the Mexican June prints were highlighted while cooling the shocks. On the background of expectations for modest inflation, the central bank indicated that it is likely to slow the pace of the mitigation cycle.
With the closure of the week, the inflation report in Brazil in the middle of the month is likely to witness that the third consecutive reading is under the weight of the highest borrowing costs in nearly two decades.
The 2025 inflation expectations began to go down, but remain above the central bank’s goal for the expected horizon.
-With the help of Beril Akman, Mark Evans, Vince Golle, Tony Halpin, Erik Hertzberg, Robert Jameson, Swati Pandey and Monique Vanek.
(Updates with Japan’s elections in the Asia Department.)
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