What happens next in Venezuela?

After beheading Venezuela’s government, President Donald Trump is betting that the United States can bend Caracas to its will, secure lucrative oil contracts for American companies, expel hostile forces, and end drug trafficking.

But there are other scenarios for the South American country, such as internal conflict and conflict with Washington, after the unprecedented strike carried out by US commandos on Saturday to kidnap strongman Nicolas Maduro from a military base in the dead of night.

Weakened by the surprise US operation – believed to be the first ever undertaken by the US military against a South American country – the revolutionary socialist government’s primary task is to remain united under new leadership.

It seems that Trump prefers Maduro’s former deputy, Delcy Rodriguez, to run the country for an indefinite period, in exchange for meeting American demands. If it fails to comply, Washington has threatened to use its naval task force in the Caribbean to cut off oil exports, Venezuela’s economic lifeline.

But Rodriguez, now interim president, faces a critical dilemma: If she fully complies with Trump’s demands, hardliners within the ruling Socialist Revolutionary Party could oust her as a traitor.

If she chooses confrontation, Trump has already threatened her with a fate worse than that of her predecessor Nicolas Maduro, who is now imprisoned in a New York prison with his wife. The couple is awaiting trial on drug smuggling charges.

“No matter what you say about Maduro, he holds things together and manages the different centers of power Chavismo “This is not easy,” said Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. “It’s been good for 13 years.” Can Delsey do it? . . . She had never auditioned for the role.

It will be relatively easy for Rodriguez to achieve some demands, such as giving American oil companies a greater role in extracting Venezuela’s natural wealth. As Vice President, she was involved in negotiating several existing contracts.

But other factors, such as cutting ties with longtime allies Russia, China and Iran, expelling Colombian Marxist rebels from Venezuela and ending its role as a cocaine transit country, could pit it against powerful military factions that profit from the illicit activities that dominate the sanctions-linked economy.

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, who has long ruled the country, and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, both under US sanctions, control most of Venezuela’s hard power. Capello manages colectivos, A highly feared national force of armed paramilitaries who ride on squadrons of motorcycles to intimidate opponents and suppress dissent.

Washington “is getting nowhere on drugs and democracy.” [Rodríguez] “It won’t fix anything because the reforms will hurt Padrino and Cabello,” said Elliott Abrams, a former US special envoy to Venezuela in the first Trump administration.

With the support of security forces, the hardline duo could theoretically move against Rodriguez and put Venezuela back on a collision course with the United States if their interests are threatened. But history ChavismoThe revolutionary movement that bears the name of its founder, Hugo Chávez, suggests that it is more likely to remain united in times of crisis, especially when its survival is at stake.

“If the military went to Diosdado and said, ‘We won’t have Delce as leader,’ and you had strong armed forces and security services support for someone else, I could see Delce possibly being removed,” said a former senior U.S. official who had dealings with Venezuela. “But other than that, I really think these guys are going to try to stick together.”

Whatever Trump or Rodriguez wants, the country’s democratic opposition may take matters into its own hands. Many Venezuelans are dismayed that Maduro’s ouster has led, at least initially, to a government that looks similar to the previous one they hated, without the leader. They can take to the streets and call on military and security forces to join them in a popular uprising to overthrow Chavismo.

But so far there have been no protest movements. The streets of Caracas were largely deserted over the weekend. Many say they fear retaliation from the regime, whose security forces are spread throughout the capital, but that situation may change.

Maria Corina Machado, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate who heads the Venezuelan opposition, called for her ally Edmundo Gonzalez to be allowed to take power in the wake of the US strike. Washington and several other countries have recognized Gonzalez as the true winner of the 2024 presidential election, in which Maduro fraudulently declared victory.

But Machado has so far stopped short of inviting her supporters in Venezuela, only asking them to “prepare” for what comes next and to organize demonstrations in Australia and Europe. She pledged to return to Venezuela, a move that could spur mass protests against the government, but did not specify when.

Trump disappointed opposition supporters by focusing heavily in his post-strike Saturday news conference on the need to develop Venezuelan oil, appearing to endorse Rodriguez as a potential partner and dismissing the possibility of Machado taking over. He did not mention holding new elections or releasing political prisoners.

However, some Venezuelan opposition figures and former US officials have warned that it is too early to judge what Trump’s endgame might be. They advised patience, saying it was not realistic to expect their country to jump directly from Maduro to an opposition-led government, and pointed to more nuanced comments made by Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, in interviews on Sunday.

Rubio told CBS he “admires” both Machado and Gonzalez, but there has to be “a little bit of realism” about Venezuela holding new elections. “Of course we want to see Venezuela move to a completely different place than it looks today,” he said. “But obviously we don’t expect that to happen in the next 15 hours.”

With so much uncertainty, few people are taking risks on what will happen next in Venezuela.

“Trump’s people seem to be betting that Delsey and her associates are able to keep things together and carry out their dictates,” Shifter said. I think this is their preferred scenario.

He added: “I’m not sure this takes into account the complexities and risks on the ground and the realities in Venezuela. So things could easily get very complicated.”“.