US dollar outlook more subdued, but tariffs souring sentiment: Reuters poll

Written by Sarubia Gangouli

BENGPONORO (Reuters) – The US dollar is expected to settle in the coming months despite the increasing concerns about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s wrong tariffs, according to a Reuters survey of FX strategists.

More than a third of the strategies surveyed in the past few days have also expressed concern about the traditional role of Greenback in the currency markets as a safe haven.

Trump is scheduled to implement a mutual tariff for commercial partners in the United States on Wednesday, which comes in many cases in addition to the tariff that was already announced, causing widespread confusion and uncertainty, including currency trading offices.

Trading data, which has been emptied of the close contract of long bets in large numbers in the past two months, has also shown futures trading data, with sites to “Safi” for the first time since October.

This was partially driven by modern speculation in the markets of three federal reserve price discounts this year compared to only two previously.

When asked how to change GPS at the end of April, the foreclosure did not provide any clear majority vision. This was a noticeable transformation of only two months when they expected speculators to continue to accumulate “long” trading.

“There has been a certain degree of fatigue in an attempt to move in the American definitions and its effects on currencies in the past few months. Investors do not want to fall into the trap of pre -sites to get a result where it is not very clear what this result will be already.”

Of the 35 strategies, they responded to a situation at the end of the month in the March 27 poll of April from Reuters, he said 17, he said 17 will not have a big change, and nine called for an increase in the net short pants while seven said it would decrease. Only two said that there will be a reflection to the long nets.

The mediators expect 69 strategies in the broader survey that the euro, which is about $ 1.08, will trade at $ 1.07 in three and after $ 1.08 in six months. Then it was expected to rise about 2 % to $ 1.10 a year.

The dollar index decreased by 4 % this year after obtaining 7 % in 2024, partly in increasing Europe driven by optimism about infrastructure and defensive spending in Germany that would revive the economy of the common currency bloc.

“We have fallen a lot in the waiting and vision mode. While many have threw towel on the dollar, we still believe that we do not have the real ingredients until they decrease comfortably during the next six to 12 months.”