What to expect Sunday night on the government shutdown

The Senate is moving toward a test vote tonight to break a filibuster on the GOP’s new spending plan. This trial vote should not be underestimated. If the Senate breaks the filibuster on the test vote tonight, the government shutdown would likely be just days from ending.

Here’s what we expect:

Sometime between 8 and 10 PM EST, the Senate will hold a test vote to break the filibuster on the revised GOP spending package. The amended bill reopens the government until at least January 30. This gives lawmakers time to work on individual spending bills. However, the package includes full spending bills through next fall for the Department of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, and military construction programs as well as congress.

It’s about mathematics. Sixty years are needed to break the filibuster. Republicans believe they can convince a group of Democrats to side with them to at least break the filibuster.

The Senate could hold a test vote on the new spending bill as early as Sunday afternoon

FOX is asked to keep an eye on these senators caucusing with Democrats: Sens. Tim Kaine, D-Va., Mark Warner, D-Va., Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., John Fetterman, D-Pa., Katherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., Angus King, I-Maine, and Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. Also watching is Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., who has expressed interest in opening up the government.

A traveler’s guide to where we stand with a potential disruption in the government shutdown

In addition, it is not clear whether Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., can vote yes. Paul previously voted to block the old GOP funding plan. A potential yes or no vote by Paul could determine the number of Democrats needed to break the filibuster. After all, it’s about mathematics.

A vote to break the filibuster does not necessarily mean that senators will ultimately vote in favor of the underlying bill. However, Republicans could move the charge on their own with a simple majority and would not need any Democrats for final passage.

What happens if the Senate gets 60 years? By the book, it would take until the end of next week to reach a final vote on the bill. But this may not happen.

There are two schools of thought:

One school says Democrats are frustrated with each other and just want to get out of the Capitol. So it’s possible they could hammer out a timing agreement and vote on final passage of the bill overnight or perhaps during daylight hours on Monday.

The U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., on Monday, November 11, 2024. (Stephanie Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The other school says Democrats are so angry about the health care capitulation that they are asking the Senate to set aside significant time over the next few days and pass the bill midweek.

Some Democrats are angry that their colleagues might help the GOP reopen the government — without a tough deal to restore expired Obamacare subsidies. This gap will ignite a democratic civil war. House Democrats were angry at Senate Democrats for helping the GOP avoid a shutdown in March. This battle will intensify between those who support test voting tonight and those who have stuck with Obamacare.

Republicans unveil key piece of shutdown puzzle in effort to reopen government

Moreover, Democrats may have blocked government funding for forty days – and their party has thrown them under the bus without a solution to Obamacare.

However, Democrats demanding Obamacare aid may have lost the battle, but they could still win the war. They have successfully put the issue of health care affordability on the radar and could force Republicans and President Trump to address it. If they don’t, Democrats may have secured a crucial issue before next year’s midterm elections.

Here’s another factor:

Some rank-and-file Democrats are angry that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. Liberals raged against Schumer when he sided with the Republican Party in the spring. Now some believe that Schumer over-corrected his position and went even further this time. This could have consequences for future leadership elections.

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So what has changed for some Democrats?

Lockdown pressure began to mount. It was a toxic mix of flight delays (with the holidays approaching), air traffic controllers being out of a job, federal workers losing pay, SNAP benefits not being distributed, Capitol Police officers and congressional aides working without pay…you name it. In addition, some Democrats have listed spending priorities important to them in appropriations bills attached to the package. That’s what makes this measure different from the measure that Democrats have blocked since late September. The new Jan. 30 funding deadline gives lawmakers the opportunity to finish other spending bills and get their big requests in those bills. So, it was a combination of things that changed the equation.