Why Gulf Leaders Prioritized Peace After Iran’s Missile Attack

For years, politicians, diplomats, analysts and journalists working in the Middle East were concerned that the war between Iran and Israel could quickly leak into the Arab world. If Israel attacked the Iranian nuclear program, many assumed that Iran will be discussed against American interests in neighboring Arab countries. Fears focused on Iraq and Syria instead of the Gulf. Given that Iran has settled on relations with the Gulf during the past few years, thinking has gone, and will avoid measures that may disturb its new relations.

On June 23, these theories were developed for the test. After the United States launched missile attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, Tehran took revenge on hitting the US bases in Qatar. It was really unprecedented. Iranian agents previously targeted the Gulf, most notably the Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in 2019 and infrastructure in Abu Dhabi in 2022. In these cases, Tehran was able to maintain reasonable denial. But Qatar’s attack was different. Iran launched the missiles directly in Qatar, hitting the headquarters of the US Central Command and UDEID. Tehran may have informed Doha of its plans early and developments have developed significantly. But it remains the truth that expresses the quiet Qatari state.

For years, politicians, diplomats, analysts and journalists working in the Middle East were concerned that the war between Iran and Israel could quickly leak into the Arab world. If Israel attacked the Iranian nuclear program, many assumed that Iran will be discussed against American interests in neighboring Arab countries. Fears focused on Iraq and Syria instead of the Gulf. Given that Iran has settled on relations with the Gulf during the past few years, thinking has gone, and will avoid measures that may disturb its new relations.

On June 23, these theories were developed for the test. After the United States launched missile attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, Tehran took revenge on hitting the US bases in Qatar. It was really unprecedented. Iranian agents previously targeted the Gulf, most notably the Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in 2019 and infrastructure in Abu Dhabi in 2022. In these cases, Tehran was able to maintain reasonable denial. But Qatar’s attack was different. Iran launched the missiles directly in Qatar, hitting the headquarters of the US Central Command and UDEID. Tehran may have informed Doha of its plans early and developments have developed significantly. But it remains the truth that expresses the quiet Qatari state.

It is somewhat paradoxes that Iran chose to hit Qatar. During his visit to the Gulf last May, US president Donald Trump heard of leaders in his head, Doha, and Abu Dhabi that peace is needed for prosperity in the region. But Trump specifically praised Qatar for his comfortable position towards Tehran. “Iran should be grateful seriously the Emir of Qatar, because there are others who want to deal with a severe blow to Iran, unlike Qatar,” Trump said. “Iran is very fortunate for the prince’s presence because he is already fighting for them. He does not want us to do an evil blow to Iran.”

In fact, the effects of Iran’s attack show how Qatar could be. On the same day that the strikes said, Majid Al -Zari, the adviser to the Prime Minister at a train and a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that Qatar “reserves the right to respond directly to the nature and size of this shameful aggression, in line with international law.” Despite this statement, Qatar seemed keen to overcome the accident. Qatari, Prince Tarim bin Hamad Al Thani, received a call the next day from Iranian President Masoud Bezishian, who “regretted” the strikes, according to a statement issued by the News Agency in Qatar. Similar calls were made to other Gulf leaders.

The level of coordination between the Gulf states was clear in the wake of the direct Iranian strikes, as evidenced by the data issued in the rapid caliphate. They condemned the attack, expressed his solidarity with Doha, and supported her right to respond if she chose to do so. However, none of the phrases was an escalation in the tone or nature.

This result must be considered a great diplomatic success, which reflects the regional commitment to avoid the set military confrontation. Iran’s strikes did not cause concrete damage to Qatar due to advanced coordination and strong air defenses, and the Iranians were quick to summon Gulf leaders to express unfortunately. As a result, bilateral relationships endured.

With the flying missiles, the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates chose to give priority to reconciliation and calm. In other words, this means that carefully cultivated relations between Iran and the Gulf bear fruit.

Tehran should not take this to be rejected. Just to avoid war, the Gulf states will not forget what happened. Iranian diplomats and officials need to work to rebuild bilateral confidence in the coming months and years.

Five days of strikes, Anwar Garagash, the diplomatic advisor to the President of the United Arab Emirates, publicly said: “While we run the page in the war, Iran must rebuild confidence with its Gulf neighbors, after it was affected by this attack.”

Without a concerted effort to show goodwill, Tehran risks the support that the Gulf states have shown so far. While Iran continues its negotiations with the United States, the European Union and the United Nations, it needs its neighbors to continue to defend peace with their Western allies. Iranian officials have an open channel for the Gulf. If this channel is closed, it will not only struggle to improve regional relations, but it will also lose an important channel with the United States and Trump itself. In order for Tehran to risk that during the increasing period of doubts it will be particularly reckless.

Tehran, for its part, appears to be aware of the need to rebuild confidence. Iranian officials continued to their Gulf counterparts, where Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi visited the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Moreover, the agents have greatly reduced their speech and threats against the Gulf.

While the last round of the conflict has fortunately passed without major civilian victims in the Gulf, the specter of war has not disappeared. With a portion of the Iranian nuclear program, it is still sound and diplomatic conversations as E3 moves incredibly slowly, the possibility of renewing the Israeli or American strikes is very real. Therefore, the responsibility of Iran is to demonstrate that it is serious in negotiation. If the negotiations fail, Iran will fall to demonstrate that it does not intend to expand the repercussions of any war that followed.

Lesson of strikes on June 23 is that, in the end, leaders can choose whether they will escalate or not. Fortunately, Qatar and its Gulf allies chose to cancel the escalation. Now, the region is watching to see if Iran can benefit from this fragile momentum.