America Can Help Fight Russia’s Blackout Warfare in Ukraine

Russia is no longer just attacking Ukraine’s electrical grid; It is a field test of the obfuscation war strategy. While unleashing thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles a month across Ukraine, Moscow is now combining strikes on hard-to-replace power plants and high-voltage transformers, as well as the destruction of natural gas systems all the way down to the city level. The effects were stark: families shivering in the dark, schools disrupted, hospitals trying to provide life-saving care using generators and limited water, and electron-starved industry.

This campaign lays out a blueprint for how modern great powers will attempt to paralyze each other in future conflicts. So, allied nations should treat Ukraine’s grid defense assistance not as an act of charity, but as an investment in its future electrical security, which underpins many critical dimensions of modern life. Behind-the-scenes deals will not end this war, but learning how to better defend Ukraine’s electricity could lay the foundation for a lasting peace in the future.

Russia is no longer just attacking Ukraine’s electrical grid; It is a field test of the obfuscation war strategy. While unleashing thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles a month across Ukraine, Moscow is now combining strikes on hard-to-replace power plants and high-voltage transformers, as well as the destruction of natural gas systems all the way down to the city level. The effects were stark: families shivering in the dark, schools disrupted, hospitals trying to provide life-saving care using generators and limited water, and electron-starved industry.

This campaign lays out a blueprint for how modern great powers will attempt to paralyze each other in future conflicts. So, allied nations should treat Ukraine’s grid defense assistance not as an act of charity, but as an investment in its future electrical security, which underpins many critical dimensions of modern life. Behind-the-scenes deals will not end this war, but learning how to better defend Ukraine’s electricity could lay the foundation for a lasting peace in the future.

The devastation that Russia will wreak will not be limited to Ukraine. A victorious Moscow will likely apply similar tactics in NATO countries. China is also learning from the Russian experience, and will likely use blackout warfare against Taiwan, if Beijing chooses to pursue forced annexation — a course of action that Chinese president Xi Jinping has constantly threatened.

Russian forces carried out at least 25 large-scale attacks against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure between September 2022 and September 2024, severely pressuring the regime. But this fall’s attack waves were different in four key ways.

First, the sheer size overwhelms Ukrainian air defenders. Ukrainian Air Force data shows that so far, Russia has launched more than 62,000 long-range drones and 9,300 heavy missiles at Ukraine. Russia’s production investments and an endless river of components supplied by China now enable it to launch dozens of missiles and up to 800 drones and decoys in a single night to terrorize Ukrainians.

A dangerous new subtlety also threatens Ukraine’s main energy infrastructure. Some of the newer Shahid drones (also called Jeeran) can even hit moving trains. This means that power plants and substations are now more vulnerable, and that even a few drones that slip through air defenses can cause precise destruction.

At the same time, the supply of interceptor missiles to Ukrainian air defenders does not keep pace with the size and sophistication of the tactics of the Russian missile forces. Ukraine has several options for intercepting drones, but only another missile can stop a ballistic missile heading towards a power plant or substation at hypersonic speeds.

But most important of all, the Russian offensive is relentless and offers little opportunity to rebuild Ukraine. Russia is really attacking the entire energy system with high intensity: most of the major thermal power plants have been destroyed; Large substations (including nuclear plants) are frequently targeted; Now, the natural gas system is also under constant attack.

As a result of the Russian attack, this winter is likely to be the hardest ever for millions of Ukrainian civilians. Burning power plants, cratered substations, and exploded natural gas compression stations mean no lights, no heat, and no water for millions. With daytime temperatures dropping to freezing by the New Year in much of Ukraine, the potential for a humanitarian crisis and refugee influx into Europe is high.

In fact, this is likely to be one of Russia’s main goals. Since the full-scale invasion began nearly four years ago, Moscow has realized that although it cannot achieve victory on the battlefield, it can terrorize Ukrainian society instead, hoping to force collapse or concessions.

So, what can Ukraine do in response – and how can its partners help? Here are three actionable ideas to get you started, ranked by what can meet the most pressing human needs most quickly.

First, using frozen Russian assets to keep the Ukrainians alive. It’s time for the world’s largest purchase of personal generators as well as more grid-scale batteries and solar panels to charge them. A decent generator now costs around $1,000 in Ukraine, according to popular Ukrainian e-commerce site Rozetka. So each billion-dollar addition could produce one million portable generators. This number could help between 5 million and 6 million people survive the winter. Meanwhile, batteries are an asset that can help stabilize the power system when thermal plants are hit.

Ukraine’s allies could use the same pool of Russian money to further capitalize the global gas turbine and transformer industrial base. It is possible to give Ukrainian utilities access to a large, globalized industrial base to compensate for losses. Russian strike forces rely in part on the Chinese industrial base. In response, Ukrainian energy companies need access to a larger global industrial base for their equipment. Providing this would send a message of deterrence to Russia.

Second, create a broader energy deterrence program. Ukraine’s DeepStrike program — a retaliatory effort to send strikes deep into Russian territory — is increasingly making clear to Russian officials that further strikes on Ukraine’s energy system will not be without costs. One author has already counted more than 200 confirmed and suspected Ukrainian kinetic strikes on Russian oil, gas and electricity infrastructure since early 2022, with a significant intensification since late summer of this year. The more credible Ukraine is in applying the “eye for an eye” principle in energy infrastructure deterrence mode, the better it will be able to deter Moscow in the future.

Accordingly, NATO partners should prioritize the delivery of air defense missiles to Ukraine, including by putting Kiev at the front of the queue for the much-needed additional Patriot and SAMP/T missile systems. Second, the West must also provide Kiev with long-range strike capabilities, such as JASSM and Taurus missiles, as well as any other long-range systems required to complement Kiev’s already successful campaign to weaken Russia’s oil refining and export capabilities.

The United States and its partners must also provide more support to Ukraine’s DeepStrike program, so that it can achieve and maintain a monthly rate of long-range drone and heavy missile launches equal to the Russian rate. This means ensuring that Ukraine is able to produce and launch more than 200 missiles and more than 4,500 long-range drones within a specified 30-day period.

Third, and finally, establishing a long-term nuclear partnership. Washington should also work with Kiev to build several new AP1000 nuclear reactors in western Ukraine. While this would not solve the electricity crisis in 2025, signing deals now and manufacturing steel by 2027 would signal to Moscow that the West is committed to Ukraine’s energy security for decades. Fighter planes last a 25-year partnership, but nuclear reactors can stabilize them for 60 years or more, making nuclear power a key component of great power competition.

Russia is failing on the battlefield. During nearly four years of intense fighting, it was only able to control an area slightly larger than the US state of West Virginia. At this rate, seizing the rest of the Donbas region, which Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in, could take several more years. According to Ukrainian estimates, Russia has sacrificed more than a million soldiers, including dead and wounded, and is currently suffering about 1,000 additional casualties per day.

By comparison, more than 416,000 American soldiers were killed in World War II, the bloodiest conflict the world has ever known. Because Putin is unable to break the Ukrainian army on the field, he is trying to break society at home using a war of obfuscation.

Ukrainians do not want to be ruled by the Russian Empire again. As the Ukrainian national poet Taras Shevchenko said in the 19th century: “Fight, and you will win!”

Helping Ukraine win the electricity war is a crucial battle – lasting peace requires victory on the grid front. Allied nations can provide this assistance at a manageable cost and in ways that also directly facilitate strengthening their electricity resilience and security in a renewed era of great power conflict.