U.S. Strikes Didn’t Destroy Iranian Facilities

I have spent the past few days telling the unbelievable reporters that the Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, even with the help of the United States, seemed anemia – and that, at best, it has restored the Iranian nuclear program for several months, and perhaps general if we are lucky.

Now cnn, and New York TimesReuters, and even sweating in Fox News, reported the conclusions of a five -page rating of the strikes prepared by the United States Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). It turned out that I was perhaps you were Exaggeration in estimate The effectiveness of the bombing campaign. This report indicated that the strike has returned the Iranian nuclear program again for a month to two months at the low end and less than a year. (The CIA estimates that the matter will take the “years” of Iran to rebuild the facilities that were destroyed next to this point, because no one believes that Iran will do so.)

DIA’s evaluation depends on both satellite images and intelligence. People like me, who work with open source information, can eavesdrop on Iranian phone calls, but I can look at satellite images. I see the same.

When Israel began its bombing campaign against Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went out to shed light on the material, saying that “Iran has produced enough uranium very enriched for nine atomic bombs – a bed.” This material is MacGufin in the woe story. Iran will have to enrich this substance to the degree of weapons, but it would have done so quickly, within about three weeks, at the Fordow Fuel Factory.

Where is this article now? According to the evaluation of the American intelligence, Iran’s early conflict, which is likely to be a secret location. This, by the way, is exactly what the Iranians, Rafael Ghosti, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). American officials, undoubtedly embarrassed the fact that they had no idea about the place where the material went, tried a number of funny interpretations. Vice president JD Vance claimed that he was buried. Foreign Minister Marco Rubio claimed that trucks could not move in Iran without almost targeting Israel, although there are many satellite images that show trucks that reach the facilities, followed by pictures of more trucks covering the entrances with dirt. We now know that Dia believes that the material is on Lam.

If Iran is flowing into a bomb, it will have to enrich this substance and eventually convert it from its current form – GAS – to a metal half migraine that can be assembled in a bomb. These steps are called conversion and casting. Vans and others have sought to reduce the risk of missing materials by claiming that Israel and the United States have completely canceled Iran’s ability to enrich uranium and manufacture uranium.

Even before the last DIA’s evaluation, it was clear that this was a mistake and that Iran kept a great ability to reshape the uranium enrichment program.

Shortly before the start of the bombing campaign, there was a controversial meeting of the International Atomic Energy Governor Council on June 12, from which several important elements of information appeared. This meeting has largely forgotten the rush of the events that followed the bombing campaign, which we now know that it has been planned a long time ago and was suspended until the end of the 60 -day window and US President Donald Trump claimed that he gave Iran.

During this meeting, Grosso pointed out that the International Atomic Energy Agency “lost the continuity of knowledge in relation to the current production and stock of centrifugal, roundabouts and disagreement … which will not be possible to restore.” What this means, in practice, is that the International Atomic Energy Agency no longer knows the number of centrifugations that Iran stored or is all stored. Iran can use any centrifuge to storage to replace the destroyed centrifugal or create new centrifugal facilities.

In addition to any cases of the central expulsion of Iran, it can earn more. In recent years, Iran has built a giant underground facility near Natanz, under the wonderful mountain of Becaxi (Kuh-E KUANG GAZ LA). After Israel conducted an attack in 2021, it sabotaged a close workshop that made the centrifuges, Iran transported production equipment here. Israel and the United States did not strike this underground workshop in Pickaxe Mountain, but Israel struck the empty buildings elsewhere used to accommodate the equipment. Maybe they used the time machine.

Where will Iran prove this central expulsion? According to the evaluation stipulated that Iran “retains the secret nuclear facilities that have not been targeted in the strike and remains working.” One of these sites, according to Jennifer Griffin in Fox News-is a really good correspondent asking difficult questions-the third alleged site for enrichment.

Yes, there is a file third A enrichment site alongside Fordow and Natanz, which was struck by the United States. After the Council of the International Atomic Energy Agency governors found Iran in violation of its obligations under its guarantees agreement, Iran announced that it had completed the construction of a facility to expel a new central in a “safe site” and was ready to start installing the centrifuge there. Iran invited the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect the facility, but then the bombing occurred.

This centrifugal facility was not publicly unknown, although Grossi said it was near Esfahan. Neither Israel nor the United States tried to attack this facility, as I can say. Iran can start fixing the centrifuges there on any day.

Historically, Iran was able to install a series to two centrifugal waterfalls per week. (A series of centrifugal devices is set, usually about 170.) The country can install an alternative to a Fordow in less than three months. The first bomb materials will be available two to three days after that.

There may be other possible enrichment sites. In 2010, when Iran revealed the Fordo enrichment factory, he also claimed that he intended to build 10 such sites. While US officials believed at the time that this was fading, a few months later, Iran indicated that it was planning to start building on two other facilities buried underground underground the following year. It seems likely that the new Iran facility was built in this time period, but it has not been operated yet.

Surprisingly, one of Iran’s options is to reinstall the centrifuge in Ford. The defense intelligence report concludes that although the strike in the electrical system is damaged and the entrance tunnels have collapsed, the underground enrichment hall is still sound. This helps to explain the reason for not attacking all these underground facilities. They are even deeper than Ford. I think the United States will need a greater mop.

It is not clear where Iran will turn this substance into a bomb. While the buildings above the ground were destroyed in the uranium conversion facility, the nearby tunnels appear to be not touched. Iran also has a large underground facility outside Tehran, called the Martyr Borogeri project, which is located next to the military site called Parshin. This tunnel complex was originally built to convert the uranium Floride Floride to the metal and throw the hemispheres of the globe to the nuclear weapons. Iran did not enter this facility in operation, although this may change now. While Israel struck other parts of the Parshin Military site, the tunnel of the Borger -like martyr – like other underground facilities – did not touch.

Finally, Iran is likely to retain 900 lbs of very enriched uranium, which the International Atomic Energy Agency said, in addition to a wide network of underground installations to produce centrifugations, enrich materials, and assemble them in a small nuclear weapons stockpile if this is what he chooses to do. It is not surprising that Dia believes that the program has not been appointed much.

From a month to two months! Even if the program is delayed from two to three years, as some Israelis claim, the 2015 joint action plan (JCPOA) has been delayed several times. The opponents of the diplomatic solution complained that many of its rulings have been shed at 10 or 15 years. (And even this claim was misleading, because many other important judgments were aimed at continuing forever.)

However, those people who complained that 10 or 15 years old was not long enough to have a deal now to cheer a few months of delay by bombing – delay, prevention for you, they have no plan at all, unlike doing this again when Netanyahu’s survey numbers begin to slip. I do not blame them – they never wanted a diplomatic solution, just change the system – but I do not understand how they escape from it. We make treaties according to impossible strict standards, as if any agreement by humans can be perfect, but then, we classify military operations on a curve.

While many experts focused on the border at JCPOA – how many centrifugations, grow up the type, and how much Iranian Iranian might have – argued that its true value is the amount of what has strengthened our ability to discover secret facilities. This included guarantees from cradle to cradle, starting from the moment when uranium was extracted, the machines used to take centrifiers, the measures that are limited to Iran can enrich uranium, and unusual rights for the International Atomic Energy Agency to consider.

These measures were not perfect, but we are now learning how blind we are without them. More importantly, these measures effectively prevented Iran from using underground facilities such as Ford to enrich uranium for years, which is now we know that the massive bombs that you cannot dream about.

It may be difficult to rotate the limited effect of bombing with the amazing appearance of the bombing campaign, with screaming missiles and bangs. He says often that one of the most popular air force shows in history has done very little to damage the Iranian nuclear program. This is exactly the reason, at the beginning of the campaign, she made it clear that the strike will only succeed if the Iranian regime fell.

While changing the system according to the air force always seemed to be no longer a desperate shot, it was still more logical than blurring the large, dispersed nuclear program and deeply buried like Iran. I think the Israelis knew it too. After all, Netanyahu appointed the operation LionAfter the national symbol of Iran before the revolution. Israel’s national animal is deer.

Was the regime’s change what Washington really wanted, at least if its goal is to keep Iran nuclear? After all, Iran has been a few months of bomb a few months away from 20 years ago. The thing that hinders Iran was not technical in the first place – it was always political. For everything that I do not like in the repressive and intertwined Islamic Republic, it was at least hesitant in building the bomb.

Iran’s supreme leader arrested the nuclear weapons program in 2003 for reasons that are still unclear. This program, according to the American intelligence community, was still suspended until the moment Israel began to bomb. We do not know what Ayatollah Ali Khouni and his advisors said when they went around the table discussing the nuclear weapons program in the past. But something remained his hand.

Even when Iranian officials withdrew their feet over cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency or the negotiators who were in talks, Iran seemed to have always been seeking a diplomatic solution. The Trump administration, for its part, is sure to have learned Iran a lesson. Trump officials say that the Iranians will now return to negotiations, who love bombing. Of course, there are other lessons that some Iranians have learned.

Either way, I am sure that the inevitable internal discussions in Iran will look different now, not the least of which is that there are a number of new faces on the table. The United States and Israel have changed the regime somewhat – perhaps not the way they were hoping.