What’s happening with the India US trade deal?

While the deadline on August 1 to implement the Trump tariff is waving on the horizon, India has not yet finished the commercial deal with the United States. In fact, it is certain that the commercial deal with Washington will not be ink before the deadline, as a team from the United States is scheduled to visit India on August 25 to conduct more negotiations. This will be the sixth round of talks between the two sides.

The chief negotiator in India, Rajish Agrouwal and Brendan Lynch, met the assistant representative of South and Central Asia in Washington in the fifth round of the talks, after which Agrouwal returned to New Delhi.

Meanwhile, Trump indicated that if the two countries fail to reach an agreement, a 25 percent tariff will be imposed on India. When asked if India would face new fees, Trump said, “They will pay 25 %. Yes, I think so. India – they are my friends.”

Now, the final deal, the comprehensive bilateral agreement, is expected to be completed by September or October, with a temporary mini deal in the meantime.

“More negotiations”

American commercial actor Jameson Jarir CNBC told an interview that India needs more negotiations. He added that Trump is interested in good deals more than fast deals. Jarir said that India has shown “strong interest in opening parts of its market” although its trade policy has long focused on protecting local interests.

“We need more negotiations with our Indian friends to see their ambition,” Jarir said.

Trade Minister Piush Joyal said that the talks with the United States on the commercial deal are in a “very advanced” stage.

A government official said that Trump could issue an introductory letter imposing duties from 20 to 25 percent in the “worse case scenario”. “However, we assume that it will be a temporary measure, given the five tours of the commercial talks that occurred. A deal will be reached soon,” the official said.

India hinders new offers with its strategy controlling the largest -scale American tariff threats targeting the BRICS countries, including India, on issues such as disposal of Russian oil, according to another official.

What is waiting

India has taken a firm position against granting the concessions of the duty to agriculture and dairy products, which the United States is seeking to search for. Agriculture and dairy remain out of New Delhi, which does not want to allow the genetically modified soybeans, or to open the dairy sector. India also gives priority to removing an additional 26 percent tariff and alleviating the tariffs on steel, aluminum and car sector.

The United States, on the other hand, seeks to obtain duty concessions on different industrial goods, with a focus on electric cars, wine and petrochemical products. The conversations also cover agricultural commodities, dairy tools, and genetically modified crops.

Both countries aim to conclude the trade agreement soon, but it appears to be increasingly temporary trade agreement.

Cargo exports in India to the United States increased by 22.8 percent to $ 25.51 billion in the April neighborhood to June, which reflects a strong trade relationship. The total bilateral commodity trade reached about $ 129 billion in 2024, as India published a trade surplus of about $ 46 billion.